Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's unannounced meeting with Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda yesterday evening has inflamed speculation about a possible political crisis ahead of
fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra's "judgement day".
A source claimed Abhisit admitted to Prem the possibility of a House dissolution as coalition allies led by Chart Thai Pattana de-facto leader Banharn Silapa-Archa continued to pile pressure on the ruling Democrat Party over their demands for amend ment of the Constitution.
Abhisit and Prem also discussed the growing belligerence of the red-shirt movement, seen as a development that could add to political instability.
According to the source, Prem encouraged Abhisit to carry on during the next difficult phase of his premiership.
Abhisit met Prem at the latter's Si Sao Thewes residence after switching his car at Parliament, apparently to avoid being followed by reporters. It was Prem who had called for the meeting, the source said.
The prime minister met the Privy Council chief once last year when the issue of who should be the new police chief threatened to become politically explosive.
Yesterday's meeting coincided with growing speculation that Thaksin's last-ditch efforts to save his Bt76-billion assets from the prospect of being permanently seized by the state would trigger a new round of political turmoil - perhaps even the worst to date.
Thaksin stands to lose all if the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders rules against
him on February 26 in his assets-seizure case. The Bt76 billion represents the final chunk of his wealth.
Sources claim Thaksin has suffered a series of financial blows that have depleted his funds, contrary to his claim in a recent interview on the Times Online website that he still had some US$100 million (Bt3.31 billion) of his total net worth.
First of all, they say financial and political problems related to his investments in Dubai are preventing him from returning to the emirate.
"If he goes back to Dubai, he'll be nabbed right at the airport," said one source. "His geographical movements have become a big constraint. He's now believed to be staying in Cambodia."
Second, the sources say the UK Treasury has quietly seized some $4 billion believed to belong to Thaksin.
Believing the money came from dubious tax havens, the Treasury orig
inally froze the amount in 2008 in a procedure that would allow the rightful owner came forward to declare ownership, according to the sources. However, the time limit recently expired with no one claiming ownership, leading the Treasury to seize the money outright, the sources say.
A government source also said Thaksin was believed to have borrowed money from a Russian oil company to finance his political comeback.
"He'll be in big trouble with the Russians if he cannot repay that debt," the source said. "But wherever he goes, he likes to have his photo taken with VIPs, to assert his status."
A source close to Thaksin said the ousted leader now was down to between Bt500 billion and Bt1 billion.
As a fugitive on the run, the only way Thaksin can salvage his future is through a political upheaval in Thailand. He is said to be pursuing a three-pronged strategy to reclaim his assets and make a political comeback.
First, his cronies will lobby the Supreme Court in the assets-seizure case, hoping to get at least some of the money back. It is believed the Thaksin camp would be satisfied if the court returned Bt40 billion and ordered seizure of the rest, as the Thaksin empire was worth around that amount before he entered politics.
"This option will not work, because he has no influence over the Supreme Court," one source said.
Second, Thaksin will try to bring down the Abhisit Vejjajiva government. Already, red-shirt protesters have mobilised in a bid to topple the administration.
But a more effective way to remove the Democrat-led government is to drive a wedge between the coalition partners, with the Chart Thai Pattana Party acting as the catalyst.
Sources say the coalition partners may use the constitutional-amendment issue as an excuse to walk away from the government. Chart Thai Pattana, controlled by Banharn, is spearheading the drive, but the Bhum Jai Thai Party, controlled by Newin Chidchob, is believed to be hesitant.
As prime minister, Abhisit holds the upper hand, because he can counter the threat by opting to rule with a minority government if the coalition parties betray him.
Abhisit can run the country with a minority government for several months before calling a snap election, during which time he will still serve as acting prime minister.
Lastly, Thaksin's final game plan is to rely on the red shirts to start rioting again, with an ensuing military reaction in his favour ahead of the Supreme Court's February 26 ruling.
Political sources say the early part of next month will be the most intense period in terms of Thaksin's final battle for survival.
:THE NATION
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